Catalyst Calendar
Below/attached is our first Catalyst Calendar, for the month of November. These are the events that we think will move the market, for better or for worse.
We chose these catalysts based on the market forces we believe are most significant, described in the ‘Brief Market Overview’ below.
Brief Market Overview
The Fed and inflation fears are still in control of the market, but a trending thesis is that inflation is reaching a peak.
Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it does seem like inflation ought to begin trending downward after the initial spike we saw at the beginning of the year. However, it’s clearly flattened out a little over the past two months, stimulating the whole transitory-or-not inflation debate we see in the news.
Taken from the BLS’s October CPI report
Anything that goes against the thesis of inflation being at a “peak” is a bearish (negative) catalyst, and vice versa. Here are the market forces we think are at play, and which influence our selection of catalysts:
Inflation Readings
Interest Rates decision-making
Margin Calls
Economic Growth and Unemployment
The catalysts in the Catalyst Calendar are things which contribute to these forces, i.e. we think they’ll move the market. By “move” the market, we mean that it will cause volatility or at least anticipation that the market might swing up or down.
As we’ve repeated in many newsletters, margin debt is at abnormal highs and lots of things are going on with the Fed and the SEC surrounding illegal stock trading activity.