Quantitative Analysis: Mean Reversion in U.S. Large Caps

Statistical Evidence for 3-7 Day Swing Trading Opportunities

Sep 11, 2025

∙ Paid

The Highest-Probability Trade in the S&P 500

Based on backtesting PepsiCo's daily closing stock prices downloaded from Yahoo Finance (covering January 2020 through August 2025—approximately 1,380 trading days), when PEP 0.00%↑ drops 3% below its 20-day moving average, it has historically returned to that average within 5 trading days 82% of the time, generating a…

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Weekly Catalysts to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.